Putin and Ahmadinehad Confer (Again)

According to RIAN, the presidents of Russia and Iran have held another telephone discussion on the situation in the Middle East.

Vladimir Putin and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “discussed the current situation in the Middle East,” the statement said. “In this regard both presidents agreed that the situation in Lebanon and in the whole region had escalated further.”

Meanwhile, the Israel Defence Force has been ordered to move up to the Litani River, though this potentially week-long process could be halted depending on the outcome of negotiations at the U.N. and on whether the new U.S.-French draft ceasefire resolution includes the disarming of Hizballah, among other things.

See also: Putin and Ahmadinejad Confer

Katyusha Politics

In Jamestown’s Terrorism Monitor, Andrew McGregor discusses the method by which Hizballah has managed to convert a World War II-derived armament into an instrument of political and ideological aggression:

The 122mm Katyusha (range: 20-25 kilometers) is the mainstay of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal. “Katyusha” is somewhat of a generic term today, covering a wide variety of small, unguided, solid-fuel rockets produced by a number of countries, including Iran. The Katyushas all have a common origin in the Soviet BM-8 and BM-13 truck-mounted rocket launchers that were used against the German army in 1941. Fired in short-range volleys of as many as 48 rockets at a time, they had an immediate military and psychological impact on German troops.

Hezbollah usually fires their version of the Katyusha one at a time from improvised launching facilities. Some Katyusha-type multiple-rocket launching systems were specifically designed to be dismantled into single units for guerrilla use. In 2001, the first truck-mounted launching systems were reported in Hezbollah’s arsenal, making more effective volley-launches possible. There are some recent instances of volley-firing, such as the attacks on the Israeli town of Acre on August 3.

Once in the air, the cheaply-made Katyushas are remarkably difficult to stop. A few years ago, Israel and the United States cooperated in a joint project to develop a “Tactical High Energy Laser” (THEL) to bring down such rockets by igniting the warhead in mid-air through the use of a high-energy chemical laser. In tests the system successfully destroyed several Katyusha rockets, but mobility difficulties and technical concerns related to the chemical fuel led to a cut in funding for the project in 2004. Research is underway on a more-portable version with an electrically powered laser, but production of this costly system is still years away.

The unguided Katyusha is not intended to strike a specific target. Rather, it is designed to be fired with 16 or more of its kind in a salvo that rains destruction upon a certain area, preferably a troop concentration, massed armor or fortified emplacements. By firing Katyusha-type rockets singly (often into sparsely occupied parts of Israel) Hezbollah has forgone the tactical use of this weapon for strategic purposes. Here Hezbollah signals its mastery of media warfare; the media covers wars like a sporting event, with the scorecard being the most important element in determining who is winning. Besides the daily updates of the number of troops killed, the number of civilians killed and the number of air-raids launched, the media also dutifully records the daily tally of rockets fired. Despite causing insignificant physical damage, each rocket arrives like a message of defiance, a signal to the Arab world that Israel is not invincible. Hezbollah routinely looks for new uses for existing weapons in its arsenal, and in this case they have transformed a battlefield weapon into a means of political warfare.

Deterrence

Writing in the Jerusalem Post, Brig.-Gen. Doron Almog, who was head of the IDF’s Southern Command from 2000 to 2003, expresses the view that the research and development efforts of the State of Israel must concentrate on devising missile defence systems that expand the present capability to include the interception of the majority of missiles launched at the country. The enemy’s missile technology is likely to evolve during the next 10 years to a point where the whole of Israel will be vulnerable to missile attack.

Deterrence is closely linked to the operational abilities of the military and its weapons systems, as well as to the willingness to use them and to exact a very high price for the unrestrained rocket attacks being carried out against the State of Israel.

If Israel currently had arms capable of intercepting 90% of the rockets, and with the IAF attacking Hizbullah as it has been doing until now, there would be no need to send in ground forces and the entire debate we have witnessed over the offensive in South Lebanon would be irrelevant. In such a situation, Hizbullah would understand the ineffectiveness of its missile arsenal and would likely be reluctant to use it.

But in the absence of this type of weapons system, Israel has no choice but to gain deterrence and a decisive outcome through a combination of massive ground forces in south Lebanon supported by the air force and navy, and a more massive attack on Lebanon’s infrastructures.

The collective memory of all those living in the Middle East – especially Iranians, Syrians and the Palestinians – must be seared by the sight of the terrible price that Lebanon is paying for the destruction caused to Israel during this war, to create a psychology of deterrence.

Moscow Plans a Diversion

Russia is planning a new Middle East ceasefire proposal of its own, based on a 72-hour “humanitarian truce”.

United States U.N. Ambassador John Bolton has responded by saying

he did not think it was helpful to distract attention from negotiations over the US-French draft.

“We’re not playing games here,” said Bolton. “This is very serious.”

Bolton said it was still possible that the council would be ready to vote Friday on the US-French proposal. (AP)

Le Monde reports that Dan Gillerman, Israel’s ambassador to the U.N.,

considers that Russia’s call is “a bad idea”. He says he has met with Mr (Vitaly) Churkin, to “explain to him that a ceasefire of this kind would fulfil only one objective – to allow Hizballah to regroup and regather its strength.” (my tr.)