Risk of Russian military intervention in Georgia?

Jamestown‘s Pavel Felgenhauer believes that there is:

With the internal military rebellion thwarted the outcome of a possible violent clash between the government and the radical opposition may be decided by Russia, which might choose to become militarily involved. Since mid-April Russian forces were poised on the ceasefire line in South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as its marines on landing ships offshore in the Black Sea for a possible intervention (EDM, April 16). The troops and tanks are deployed for immediate action, but have been waiting, apparently for events in Georgia to unravel, provoking violence and destabilization.

Moscow has angrily denounced the NATO peacekeeping exercises in Georgia as a “provocation” (EDM, April 23). Last week Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards were rushed from the North Caucasus to take up positions on the ceasefire line that Russia has unilaterally declared to be the new border (Interfax, April 30). Now any possible shooting incident on the ceasefire line will directly involve Russian soldiers, and can be used as a pretext for a new military invasion.


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